San Jose Earthquakes - Vako

San Jose stole a point at the death against Philadelphia on Saturday night (8/19); a result that didn't serve either team well. And, for what it's worth, I'd suspect both teams to finish out of the playoff picture.

However, San Jose's newest Designated Player, Valeri "Vako" Qazaishvili, made his first start. He'd made a few late appearances with the Quakes in their previous two matches, and showed flashes of top-level MLS attacking play.

In his first full 90 he was the best player on the field by a wide margin; scoring three minutes in and creating several high quality scoring chances throughout. Check out the match highlights:

 

What's impressed me most in his brief MLS tenure so far is that Vako plays consistently at pace, going towards goal, and that he's quick to shoot. These things sound basic because they are. But so is attacking soccer. 

Even at the highest levels, creating scoring chances comes down to movement in the right direction and shooting the ball from high probability scoring areas. Whereas top-level defense is about restricting or containing player movement into hard to score from places, and tackling/blocking shots. 

Everything else in soccer, strategically and technically, permeates from those basic ideas.

In the Philadelphia draw, Vako shot the ball seven times, all from dangerous positions. That's excellent – it's exactly what you pay DP money for.

Vako shot chart vs Phila - 8/19/17

To give you some more context for this, Vako operates in the money zones of the field. There is a significant bank of research about how and where goals are scored. That research shows a majority of goals come from "zone 17" and are created from a "zone 14" pass. 

What does that mean? Check out this chart:

If you watch a lot of soccer none of this should surprise you. Most goals are scored in the penalty area and come from attacking passes directly in front of the penalty area. So, as a club, when you pay top dollar for a goal creator or goal scorer you intend for that player to operate in zones 14 and 17 a lot. 

Again, Vako did just that against the Union. Here's his total activity with the zonal lines superimposed.

Vako total activity with zones

Given that it's only one full match it's important to not over interpret the dataset (which is statistically insignificant), but the early signs point to Vako as a top-level goal scorer in MLS going forward. 

Montreal Impact - August 17

Montreal got a convincing 3-0 win at home against Chicago last night (8/17). The full three points draws them within two of Atlanta.

Watching the second half, I tweeted this:

Montreal as playoff contender is going to be a thing down the stretch. As is the Fire's slow collapse.#MTLvCHI #MLS

— Donald Norman (@dnld_nrmn) August 17, 2017

In the light of morning, I'm asking, "are Montreal real contenders?" The answer is not so clear. Some things to consider:

Ignacio Piatti (positive) - Piatti scored one of the best goals of the season last night; and he has the ability to go on a goal scoring binge all by himself. The skill to pick out the corner, on the run, with dip and bend is one of the hardest things for an attacking player to pull off. (Not to get too deep into the weeds here, but hitting the ball with top spin is the preferred way among goal scorers to score goals. It's instant credibility among their peers as a top-notch finisher.) Check it out. 

Piatti (negative) - For his world class skillset, Piatti continues, in my opinion, to be sporadically engaged in the Impact's build-up play. He ghosts for large portions of the game, seemingly disconnected from the idea of attacking soccer. Even with the brace last night, he only completed 10 passes. For comparison, here's David Villa's completed passes from the weekend on the left vs. Piatti on the right. 

 

Piatti completed passes vs. CHI (8/17)

David Villa vs LAG (8/13)

Team xGoals - The whip-smart guys at American Soccer Analysis track expected goals (xG) by player and team based on the quality and quantity of opportunities created. You can read their explainer. Here's the team chart:

The thing to notice is Montreal are currently outperforming their team xG by the largest margin in the league. That means they're scoring low probability goals relatively frequently. That's not a dependable path forward.

Plus, even by out preforming their xG, they're sitting on a negative goal differential (-2).  And while the addition of Piette in a defensive midfield role should help solidify their defensive shape and on-ball tackling through the middle––he's been good so far––they've got a fundamental goals allowed problem.

Chicago are actually in a similar position in terms of out preforming their xG, and it's pretty clear their coming back to earth (and dropping point in the process).

All of which is to say, I probably let Piatti's excellent goal get the best of me. I'd be surprised, but not shocked, if Montreal made the playoffs.

Columbus Crew - Justin Meram

Crew S.C. notched a critical 3-1 win over Chicago Fire on Saturday (8/13). The result puts in them in fifth place in the Eastern Conference –– tied on points with Atlanta on 35, but with three more games played, so it's a bit of a misleading number.

Columbus need every point. And without Federico Higuain, who's still out with a right knee sprain, Crew's attacking efforts hinge on the play of Justin Meram.

Meram is one of the best second tier attacking players in the league. He's a creative player who moves well without the ball and this season has broken through as a goal scorer. Through Saturday he's on 10 goals, which is a career high.

Nonetheless, Meram is decidedly a second tier attacking player. Too frequently he gets pushed deep to receive the ball, his passing accuracy leaves a bit to be desire; though he often takes risks to push the ball into the attack (which I generally view positively), and he goes too long without actually shooting the ball.

Here are his last four games--shots, goals, distribution and possession--dating back to July 22nd:

vs Chicago 

vs San Jose 

vs RSL

vs Phila

In the last two games Meram has been Crew's best player, and the best version of his current ability, the Opta data basically bears that out. The prior two games, though, Meram's data highlight the criticisms of his game.

For Columbus to stay above the redline, Meram is going to need to mirror his last two performances: taking the ball high up the pitch, releasing the ball early into an attacking position, and consistently putting up shots. 

If he can do that, I really like their chances to be a threatening squad. 

If not, Ola Karama running the backline isn't going to get it done.