What the Hell Happened to Atlanta United?!

With their early morning loss to FC Cincinnati in the Disney bubble we've reached the lowest point in Atlanta Untied's MLS history. This club was built with very big ambitions by an all-in owner and a front office with plenty of savvy to pull it off; and pull it off they did. 

Eales, Boca, and McDonough  landed Tata Martino, and then found Miguel Almiron and paired  him with Josef Martinez. That was the magic. But they also drafted Julian Gressel, and added Darlington Nagbe and sold Miggy to Newcastle for a record fee.  For four(ish) years, dating back to the club's launch, it seemed like they were a step ahead of anyone in MLS; and that they were on the level with the biggest clubs in the hemisphere. 

That feels like a lifetime ago now. That club, let's call it Atlanta 1.0 through 1.5, has been systematically disassembled. 

Atlanta 2.0 is something very, very different.

• McDonough gone to Miami 
• Tata gone to Mexico
• Miggy gone to Newcastle
• Villabla gone to Libertad
• Gressel gone to DC
• LGP gone to Miami 
• Nagbe gone to Columbus
• Garza gone to Cincinnati
• Pankhurst gone to retirement
• Lawrentowicz gone to the bench    

As fast as they built it, it was over. It's we're now living through Newton's third law applied to club construction. "Every action has an equal and opposite reaction."

Whereas Tata was a Bielsa-like philosophical center of gravity for the entire organization, Frank de Boer is a manager with ideas that don't mesh with the roster; don't fit with the aesthetic and identity #ATLUTD fans came to cherish, and don't give his squad any sort of competitive advantage against the rest of the league.

Whereas Josef, Miggy were supreme DP signings each subsequent bite at the apple has gotten increasingly less satisfactory; highlighted by the total miss on Pity Martinez.

via GIPHY

And perhaps the biggest turn of fate is that the original vintage of ATL was must watch soccer because they had so much buzz and enthusiasm -- a very enviable eff you quality to them. This vintage tho? It couldn't be more stale, boring, and not worth watching but for the morbid curiosity.

They built it once, so perhaps they can do it again? But it's hard to see Eales and Boca overseeing a thriving Atlanta 3.0 given how the last 18 months have gone.

MLS is Back

Humor me for a minute and set aside the trouble Major League Soccer had establishing their bubble down in Orlando; I realize that's a big ask. The concept--which I was critical of--is turning out to be a rather good formula for the league. Daily action, the early morning and late at night time slots, wild finishes, and the usual MLS tomfoolery have lead to something of a qualified success.

One thing I'm hearing from lots of NBA people this morning is that Steve Clark's PK save on Chicharito last night was awesome and more people should talk about it. #RCTID

— John Hollinger (@johnhollinger) July 14, 2020

No small amount of this is due to the lack of other American sports options (though global soccer options have never been so numerous) but I think even in non-pandemic times, MLS would be wise to replicate #MLSisBack on an annual basis.  My guy Sanjiv (aka @USMNTvideos) floated the idea of simply replacing the first six regular season games with the tournament. I think that could work.

I also think it'd be worth considering playing the tournament during the dog days of summer; when in normal times trips to Dallas, Houston, Orlando, Miami, and soon to add Nashville, Charlotte and Sacramento will mean playing in heat and/or humidity that largely keeps fans at home during the daytime hours.

Obviously this would mean playing in Northern locale; perhaps the PNW or Toronto or Montreal as opposed to a warm weather resort (I suppose if they really wanted to get audacious they could hold this sucker down in Mexico); and we probably don't need the CCL tie-in going forward, but I could be convinced it makes the games more important and is therefore worth keeping, either way a tournament is a good idea.

Even if by accident it seems like Don Garber & Co. have stumbled into something worth doing here.
In future years we'd have league's biggest stars at the tournament, and even more importantly we'd have fans at the games. One of MLS' strongest attributes is it's fan culture and the dedication of its travelling supporters groups. I can hardly think of a better idea than a MLS fan festival with meaningful games to boot.

Don't get me wrong, there's still plenty to criticize and I've made my objections clear on my twitter timeline, but we are entering the stage where the games are getting fun and we're seeing the potential of a non-pandemic tournament in MLS.

Here's hoping this isn't a one-off! 

Playoffs Preview

I've been away from this blog for the past five weeks or so adjusting to the rhythms a new job. In the past, I worked from home and set my own hours; and could write about soccer more. Now, I'm in the office with much more standard hours. Such is life.

Anyway, I've been watching games same as ever and what follows is a brief playoff preview -- this is less of a comprehensive run down of all the match-ups, and more of what I'm interested to see. 

Does momentum matter? This is the question going in to San Jose's game at Vancouver. The Whitecaps mid-season run of form compared to the Quakes mid-season missteps have setup a classic playoff phenomenon: an above average team coasting into elimination play versus a below average team who has played with desperation to make it into the tournament on the last day. On the surface, Vancouver is substantially better than San Jose; who have a -19 goal differential. That said, in their last three results San Jose have two wins and a draw whereas Vancouver have two losses and a draw. 

Can Atlanta find their form again? On Wednesday, September 13th ATL scored seven versus New England. It was emphatic. It also changed the narrative of their season. Instead of an over achieving expansion club content with huge crowds and positive results, expectations shifted towards MLS Cup. Since then,  injuries have cut into the hype. A win vs. Columbus, who haven't lost since August 5th at San Jose, won't come easy. To advance United are going to have to find that mid-September attacking genius. 

Is there one more great run left for SKC? This is surely the end of the line for one of the quintessential groups in league history. The Veremes, Besler, Zusi, Feilhaber, Espinoza core has been great. They've won all there is to win: U.S. Open Cup(s), Supporters Shield's, and MLS Cup; and in so doing created a unique and important soccer fanbase in the heart of the country. In many ways, this group represents MLS's growth into an established global league with real staying power. Can they find the magic one more time?   

Minnesota United - August 26th

There's been very little to write about Minnesota all season long. Unlike Atlanta, who've taken a savvy--and high dollar--approach to MLS expansion, the Loons haven taken what could most generously be called a "different" approach.

Minnesota made some good summer moves, and finally got a road win on Saturday (8/26) to show for it. It would be easy to interpret their 2-1 win over Chicago solely through the Fire's lens; which isn't pretty, but given this is likely to be the best result for Minnesota all season let's focus on it from their point of view.

First, Abu Danladi's pace was a real weapon (like usual) and he did well enough to finish two pretty easy chances (unlike usual) for a first half brace. Danladi has loads of potential as pure line-running goal scorer, but at this point in his development he lacks the first-touch to consistently put away the goal scoring opportunities his speed and positioning regularly creates. It should also be said: Danladi reads the game well; subjectively I'd rate his "soccer I.Q." as far above average, thanks in large part to coming through one of the best college soccer programs in the country –– UCLA. As his technical ability catches up to his natural ability, I suspect Danladi will become double-digit goal scorer.

Second,  the additions of Ethan Finlay, Sam Cronin, and Sam Nicholson have created a midfield that can at least compete against MLS-level opposition. That might sound like a low bar, but previously Minnesota were basically a non-MLS team in the midfield.  The Loons play five midfielders so I've isolated the completed passes for Finlay and Nicholson, while including Cronin and leaving out Ibson and Molino, comparing Saturday's win at Chicago vs. the 6/29 loss against NYCFC. Check it out:

Cronin, Finlay, Nicholson completed passes vs. CHI - 8/26

Cronin, Ibarra, Venegas completed passes vs NYCFC - 6/29

Notice the defensive-third passing cone I've created on each passing map –– in any game these are basically completed passes the opposition allows, i.e. not completed passes under pressure. (What about high pressing teams, you ask? A high press, done right, isolates and traps outside the inverted cone.) So, the passes I want to focus on are those that occur from midfield forward. These are completed passes under pressure that lead to goal scoring chances; Zones 11, 14, 17. In these zones, the Ibarra/Venegas combination generated basically zero attacking passes. And to be clear, it's not as if the new midfield combination is excelling, but it's much closer to competent; and when you add Ibson and Molino's data back you can see a decent midfield taking shape. 

Third, one of the primary challenges for Adrain Heath in the final stretch of the season will be managing the on-field dynamic between Danladi and a healthy Christian Ramirez (if he gets there). Ramirez has been, frankly, better than I anticipated this season (side note: I watched Ramirez play against my alma matter, Fresno Pacific University, while he was at Concordia. He was clearly a top-level NAIA player at that time [2012], but it wasn't obvious then that he'd be a double-digit goal scorer in MLS). That said, Danladi needs time on the field. It's that simple. However, he's played his only full 90 minute matches since Ramirez has gone down.

Abu Danladi Game Log 5/13-8/26

I'm certain Minnesota haven't seen enough yet to know of Danladi is "the guy" in their organization, but I'd think the final nine games would be a good to collect as much data as possible to test that thesis. 

Columbus Crew - Justin Meram

Crew S.C. notched a critical 3-1 win over Chicago Fire on Saturday (8/13). The result puts in them in fifth place in the Eastern Conference –– tied on points with Atlanta on 35, but with three more games played, so it's a bit of a misleading number.

Columbus need every point. And without Federico Higuain, who's still out with a right knee sprain, Crew's attacking efforts hinge on the play of Justin Meram.

Meram is one of the best second tier attacking players in the league. He's a creative player who moves well without the ball and this season has broken through as a goal scorer. Through Saturday he's on 10 goals, which is a career high.

Nonetheless, Meram is decidedly a second tier attacking player. Too frequently he gets pushed deep to receive the ball, his passing accuracy leaves a bit to be desire; though he often takes risks to push the ball into the attack (which I generally view positively), and he goes too long without actually shooting the ball.

Here are his last four games--shots, goals, distribution and possession--dating back to July 22nd:

vs Chicago 

vs San Jose 

vs RSL

vs Phila

In the last two games Meram has been Crew's best player, and the best version of his current ability, the Opta data basically bears that out. The prior two games, though, Meram's data highlight the criticisms of his game.

For Columbus to stay above the redline, Meram is going to need to mirror his last two performances: taking the ball high up the pitch, releasing the ball early into an attacking position, and consistently putting up shots. 

If he can do that, I really like their chances to be a threatening squad. 

If not, Ola Karama running the backline isn't going to get it done.

Philadelphia Union - August 5

Last week the crew over at American Soccer Analysis posted this piece on Philadelphia's struggle to get C.J. Sapong the ball in a position to put shots on goal. It's worth reading.

Then on Saturday the Union scored the goal of the weekend, through excellent build up play.

Not only was this goal an excellent example of creative, accurate, passing in tight spaces it's also the type of goal that Philly needs to create to address their shooting/scoring issues.

Let's break it down:

The sequences starts with Ilsinho picking the ball up relatively deep and making a long, attacking, run with the ball on his feet (Not shown in the MLS highlight). This is something Union supporters having been wanting to see more of –– specifically Ilsinho dribbling at defenders to create space for diagonal off-ball runs. 

The ball cycles back to Haris Medunjanin, who's playing a defensive mid role in the Union's variation on the 4-3-3. Medunjanin takes the ball at Dallas' d-mid, Carlos Cermeño, who steps forward leaving Ilsinho free to create in the middle of the field, 20 yards from goal.

As the aforementioned piece makes clear, this scenario is too infrequent.

However, they've done the work here and Ilsinho delivers a world class one-touch flick back to Medunjanin––who continued his movement without the ball––inside the box. Sapong, meanwhile, had been running the Dallas backline and was waiting for service at the 6. The setup is simple and Sapong puts the cross in the back of the net.

However, Ilsinho is still too removed from the Union attack, even in this game, for what they need going forward (on the field and in general) if they're going to challenge for a playoff spot. Here are his passes and shots from Opta:

As you can see, positionally, he's easy to account for. Likewise, he's equally likely to pass the ball backwards to maintain possession as he is to advance the ball in the attack. Frankly, if this were Medunjanin's passing chart you'd be pretty comfortable with it. But from a player with relatively significant UEFA Champions League experience this level of on-ball passivity isn't what the Union are paying for. 

For comparison (and to continue the thread started by Kevin Shank), here is Diego Valeri's chart from Portland's 3-1 win over LA Galaxy on Sunday (8/6).

This is what playing a creative, offensive, midfield role should look like –– regardless of formation.
(1) Valeri is, positionally speaking, much harder to account for than Ilsinho (though he certainly has his preferences). (2) He's pressing the ball into an attacking position more often than not. And, (3) he's distributing the ball to both sides of the field.

Now, accounting for formation, system, and personnel differences it's not reasonable to expect Ilsinho to mirror Valeri (who's in my view the best offensive midfielder in MLS) but those basic themes should exist in Ilsinho's game.

All of which is to say Ilsinho is capable of more, and the flashes he showed against FCD prove it. But don't confuse those flashes with something bigger or more consistent. At least not yet.

Toronto F.C. - August 2

Through the All-Star game The Reds are clearly the class of MLS. They have the highest goal differential and points per game on the table.

When healthy and playing, they have the two best goal-getters in the league - Giovinco and Jozy. Michael Bradley is playing, perhaps, the best soccer of his career. And, their roster depth is on par with the other leading clubs. Players like Victor Vasquez, Raheem Edwards, Steven Beitashour and Benoit Cheyrou give Head Coach Greg Vanney roster flexibility and consistency.

These are the hallmarks of a championship calibre team, no question.

TFC's recent 4-0 route of NYCFC shows, in my opinion, just how far ahead of the Eastern Conference they are. That said, questions remain in my mind.

Primarily, I'm curious about TFC's ability to run ahead of the pack all season long.

Over the course of July's matches (2-0-2) they've played some brilliant soccer. But they've also played some very bland, uninspiring stretches only to be bailed out by outstanding individual performances – Saturday's (7/29) second goal comes to mind. Up 1-0, but basically playing NYFC neutrally, Giovinco scored an excellent set-piece goal from 23-25 yards out.

And it was Giovinco who took advantage of Pirlo's well documented defensive liabilities to put the Reds up 1-0 in the first place.

Make no mistake, an NYCFC squad basically forced to play Pirlo because of roster depth issues wasn't going to beat TFC in Toronto. On the other hand, the 4-0 result flattered what was honestly a pretty pedestrian effort.

I watched the game live, and took a few notes. The thing that stood out to me most was the 30+ minute stretch between Giovinco's goals. There was basically zero attacking soccer from TFC. In fact, they created only one shot on goal between the first and second goals; which was another Giovinco effort from distance.

To further underscore this point, I've isolated the completed passes time-stamapped between the first and second goals. I've also annotated the graphic to illustrated the field into 1/3rds, which is how most coaches understand possession: defensive-third, neutral-third, and attacking-third.

A couple of things to say here:

First, it's obvious NYCFC weren't threatening during this stretch either. So, TFC were certainly content to posses the ball in the middle-third of the field and control the tempo of the game. However, it's always important to remember time and score. This is the passing chart of a 1-0 game during the middle half-hour of the match. This is exactly when, as a coaching staff, you're pressing your squad to get that second goal. TFC players, however, weren't playing with any sense of urgency (and credit to them, the goals came later).

Second, David Villa was on the pitch for NYCFC until late in the match. In a 1-0 situation, Villa is exactly the type of player––in fact, there's probably no one in better in MLS––who can pull a goal back against the run of play. When coaches game plan opponents these are the scenarios they review with their players. If I were on Vanney's staff, I'd've likely shown each position group cut-ups of Villa creating something out of nothing just to remind them to stay vigilant no matter the time/score scenario.

It might seem like nitpicking, but these are the characteristics of team coasting into the All-Star weekend. Being six points clear of a Chicago team that's stalled out a bit may give Toronto the feeling of inevitability –– frankly, that's probably justified. But, championship level teams don't develop the habit of coasting. 

If this were a points race I don't think anyone would question Toronto's grip on the top of the table. But it isn't. And getting results without being pushed is often cause for concern in tournament play; which is what MLS playoffs are.

Portland Timbers - July 29

At their best Portland's midfield trio of Valeri, Nagbe, and Chara produce the highest level combination play in the league. Their opening goal on Saturday (7/29) is a perfect example of what they're capable of.

Check out the highlight video here.

Nagbe pushes the ball into space until he draws attention from Huston's Juan David Cabezas. Cabezas does enough to make Nagbe release the ball - out wide to Valentin, Portland's right back, who's pushing high as an attacking option.

The thing that makes Nagbe an elite player in MLS is how he uses his movement to create attacking options for his teammates. Nagbe continues his run into the channel behind Valentin – this where most players stand and watch after they move the ball off their foot. Because he's a threat to get the ball back, and attack on the dribble, Cabezas floats with Nagbe into the channel.

These small, seemingly insignificant, details at speed actually lead to major scoring chances.

Valeri makes an attacking run into the space Cabezas should be occupying were he not drifting with Nagbe.

Valentin sees the easy passing angle, plays a simple ball––on the ground––into Valeri's attacking run. Valeri punishes Leonardo, who's caught out diving to make an emergency tackle, and then nets a rocket-shot.

None of this happens without Nagbe's movement. And this the kind of stuff Nagbe does all the time. This is why top-notch coaches love him (Klinsmann jokes aside). And this is the kind of thing people mean when they refer to a player's soccer I.Q. or "feel for the game." These intuitive, subtle, movements transform an attack from easy to defend into complex, layered, works of footballing art – the beautiful game.

Chicago Fire - July 29

First, read Sam Stejskal's excellent piece on Chicago's impressive turn around project.

In recent weeks though the Fire seem to have stalled a bit going 1-2-1 in July. In their loss to SKC on Saturday (7/29) they allowed a goal that I think is indicative of a more basic issue.

(If MLS didn't restrict it's video content you'd be seeing the clip of Latif Blessing netting a hockey-style goal by screening Lampson on a shot inside 8 yards. Instead, you have to click the link to watch the highlight.) 

SKC hit a quick transition long ball, the right back, Polster, mis-hit the clearance and Sporting were inside in the penalty box.

On the numbers, it's a 4-on-4 attack, but Chicago struggles with defensive shape – their back four recover in fine time but are flat and deep; basically at the 12. Conversely, SKC's attacking players do well to keep their shape: offensive players on both posts, one out wide and one trailing.

As is often the case, it's the trailing player that creates the goal. The ball cycles backward, Chicago's deep flat line is broken by a through-ball, and SKC gets a quality uncontested shot from eight yards out. 

But to grasp why this is an indicator of other issues you need to notice who isn't involved in the play.  Schweinsteiger never makes it back. Dax enters the box in a quasi-attempt to tackle the ball away from Feilhaber but tracks back too late (and is pretty weak), Juninho gets back even later and basically fills meaningless space back post, but Schweinsteiger is M.I.A. 

You can make a case that in this particular instance; while they're pushing the ball high and getting countered, Shweinsteiger doesn't have much of a chance to get back. And at this stage of his career he's certainly not a box-to-box midfielder. 

Nonetheless, by playing a 4-3-3, there will be multiple situations each game in which any of the three midfielders has to drop into the de facto d-mid role. That's just the way 4-3-3 defensive rotations work, especially when––like Chicago does––the offense pushes high using long, speculative balls. 

That said, Schweinsteiger was basically nonexistent as a defensive player. Here are his Opta defensive stops vs. SKC:

For context, here's Dax + Juninho:

And at this point, you might say, "well this why you pair Dax and Juninho with a late career Scheweinsteiger" and at some level that's right, but on another level, when they're up against good teams with attacking players who stay disciplined and in-shape on the break, it's only a matter of time before they get caught out without Dax or Juninho in the 6 hole or with only Dax or Juninho at the 6 and no one else in sight; which is how SKC scored in this sequence. 

That's the long-term issue Chicago is going to face against quality teams and in the playoffs. I know the goals against number looks good now, but I'm skeptical––based on what I've seen over the month of July––about their ability to keep quality teams out of the net as the season stretches on.