Montreal Impact - August 17

Montreal got a convincing 3-0 win at home against Chicago last night (8/17). The full three points draws them within two of Atlanta.

Watching the second half, I tweeted this:

Montreal as playoff contender is going to be a thing down the stretch. As is the Fire's slow collapse.#MTLvCHI #MLS

— Donald Norman (@dnld_nrmn) August 17, 2017

In the light of morning, I'm asking, "are Montreal real contenders?" The answer is not so clear. Some things to consider:

Ignacio Piatti (positive) - Piatti scored one of the best goals of the season last night; and he has the ability to go on a goal scoring binge all by himself. The skill to pick out the corner, on the run, with dip and bend is one of the hardest things for an attacking player to pull off. (Not to get too deep into the weeds here, but hitting the ball with top spin is the preferred way among goal scorers to score goals. It's instant credibility among their peers as a top-notch finisher.) Check it out. 

Piatti (negative) - For his world class skillset, Piatti continues, in my opinion, to be sporadically engaged in the Impact's build-up play. He ghosts for large portions of the game, seemingly disconnected from the idea of attacking soccer. Even with the brace last night, he only completed 10 passes. For comparison, here's David Villa's completed passes from the weekend on the left vs. Piatti on the right. 

 

Piatti completed passes vs. CHI (8/17)

David Villa vs LAG (8/13)

Team xGoals - The whip-smart guys at American Soccer Analysis track expected goals (xG) by player and team based on the quality and quantity of opportunities created. You can read their explainer. Here's the team chart:

The thing to notice is Montreal are currently outperforming their team xG by the largest margin in the league. That means they're scoring low probability goals relatively frequently. That's not a dependable path forward.

Plus, even by out preforming their xG, they're sitting on a negative goal differential (-2).  And while the addition of Piette in a defensive midfield role should help solidify their defensive shape and on-ball tackling through the middle––he's been good so far––they've got a fundamental goals allowed problem.

Chicago are actually in a similar position in terms of out preforming their xG, and it's pretty clear their coming back to earth (and dropping point in the process).

All of which is to say, I probably let Piatti's excellent goal get the best of me. I'd be surprised, but not shocked, if Montreal made the playoffs.

Philadelphia Union - August 5

Last week the crew over at American Soccer Analysis posted this piece on Philadelphia's struggle to get C.J. Sapong the ball in a position to put shots on goal. It's worth reading.

Then on Saturday the Union scored the goal of the weekend, through excellent build up play.

Not only was this goal an excellent example of creative, accurate, passing in tight spaces it's also the type of goal that Philly needs to create to address their shooting/scoring issues.

Let's break it down:

The sequences starts with Ilsinho picking the ball up relatively deep and making a long, attacking, run with the ball on his feet (Not shown in the MLS highlight). This is something Union supporters having been wanting to see more of –– specifically Ilsinho dribbling at defenders to create space for diagonal off-ball runs. 

The ball cycles back to Haris Medunjanin, who's playing a defensive mid role in the Union's variation on the 4-3-3. Medunjanin takes the ball at Dallas' d-mid, Carlos Cermeño, who steps forward leaving Ilsinho free to create in the middle of the field, 20 yards from goal.

As the aforementioned piece makes clear, this scenario is too infrequent.

However, they've done the work here and Ilsinho delivers a world class one-touch flick back to Medunjanin––who continued his movement without the ball––inside the box. Sapong, meanwhile, had been running the Dallas backline and was waiting for service at the 6. The setup is simple and Sapong puts the cross in the back of the net.

However, Ilsinho is still too removed from the Union attack, even in this game, for what they need going forward (on the field and in general) if they're going to challenge for a playoff spot. Here are his passes and shots from Opta:

As you can see, positionally, he's easy to account for. Likewise, he's equally likely to pass the ball backwards to maintain possession as he is to advance the ball in the attack. Frankly, if this were Medunjanin's passing chart you'd be pretty comfortable with it. But from a player with relatively significant UEFA Champions League experience this level of on-ball passivity isn't what the Union are paying for. 

For comparison (and to continue the thread started by Kevin Shank), here is Diego Valeri's chart from Portland's 3-1 win over LA Galaxy on Sunday (8/6).

This is what playing a creative, offensive, midfield role should look like –– regardless of formation.
(1) Valeri is, positionally speaking, much harder to account for than Ilsinho (though he certainly has his preferences). (2) He's pressing the ball into an attacking position more often than not. And, (3) he's distributing the ball to both sides of the field.

Now, accounting for formation, system, and personnel differences it's not reasonable to expect Ilsinho to mirror Valeri (who's in my view the best offensive midfielder in MLS) but those basic themes should exist in Ilsinho's game.

All of which is to say Ilsinho is capable of more, and the flashes he showed against FCD prove it. But don't confuse those flashes with something bigger or more consistent. At least not yet.