Montreal got a convincing 3-0 win at home against Chicago last night (8/17). The full three points draws them within two of Atlanta.
Watching the second half, I tweeted this:
— Donald Norman (@dnld_nrmn) August 17, 2017
In the light of morning, I'm asking, "are Montreal real contenders?" The answer is not so clear. Some things to consider:
Ignacio Piatti (positive) - Piatti scored one of the best goals of the season last night; and he has the ability to go on a goal scoring binge all by himself. The skill to pick out the corner, on the run, with dip and bend is one of the hardest things for an attacking player to pull off. (Not to get too deep into the weeds here, but hitting the ball with top spin is the preferred way among goal scorers to score goals. It's instant credibility among their peers as a top-notch finisher.) Check it out.
Piatti (negative) - For his world class skillset, Piatti continues, in my opinion, to be sporadically engaged in the Impact's build-up play. He ghosts for large portions of the game, seemingly disconnected from the idea of attacking soccer. Even with the brace last night, he only completed 10 passes. For comparison, here's David Villa's completed passes from the weekend on the left vs. Piatti on the right.
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| Piatti completed passes vs. CHI (8/17) |
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| David Villa vs LAG (8/13) |
Team xGoals - The whip-smart guys at American Soccer Analysis track expected goals (xG) by player and team based on the quality and quantity of opportunities created. You can read their explainer. Here's the team chart:
The thing to notice is Montreal are currently outperforming their team xG by the largest margin in the league. That means they're scoring low probability goals relatively frequently. That's not a dependable path forward.
Plus, even by out preforming their xG, they're sitting on a negative goal differential (-2). And while the addition of Piette in a defensive midfield role should help solidify their defensive shape and on-ball tackling through the middle––he's been good so far––they've got a fundamental goals allowed problem.
Chicago are actually in a similar position in terms of out preforming their xG, and it's pretty clear their coming back to earth (and dropping point in the process).
All of which is to say, I probably let Piatti's excellent goal get the best of me. I'd be surprised, but not shocked, if Montreal made the playoffs.
