Playoffs Preview

I've been away from this blog for the past five weeks or so adjusting to the rhythms a new job. In the past, I worked from home and set my own hours; and could write about soccer more. Now, I'm in the office with much more standard hours. Such is life.

Anyway, I've been watching games same as ever and what follows is a brief playoff preview -- this is less of a comprehensive run down of all the match-ups, and more of what I'm interested to see. 

Does momentum matter? This is the question going in to San Jose's game at Vancouver. The Whitecaps mid-season run of form compared to the Quakes mid-season missteps have setup a classic playoff phenomenon: an above average team coasting into elimination play versus a below average team who has played with desperation to make it into the tournament on the last day. On the surface, Vancouver is substantially better than San Jose; who have a -19 goal differential. That said, in their last three results San Jose have two wins and a draw whereas Vancouver have two losses and a draw. 

Can Atlanta find their form again? On Wednesday, September 13th ATL scored seven versus New England. It was emphatic. It also changed the narrative of their season. Instead of an over achieving expansion club content with huge crowds and positive results, expectations shifted towards MLS Cup. Since then,  injuries have cut into the hype. A win vs. Columbus, who haven't lost since August 5th at San Jose, won't come easy. To advance United are going to have to find that mid-September attacking genius. 

Is there one more great run left for SKC? This is surely the end of the line for one of the quintessential groups in league history. The Veremes, Besler, Zusi, Feilhaber, Espinoza core has been great. They've won all there is to win: U.S. Open Cup(s), Supporters Shield's, and MLS Cup; and in so doing created a unique and important soccer fanbase in the heart of the country. In many ways, this group represents MLS's growth into an established global league with real staying power. Can they find the magic one more time?   

Columbus Crew - Justin Meram

Crew S.C. notched a critical 3-1 win over Chicago Fire on Saturday (8/13). The result puts in them in fifth place in the Eastern Conference –– tied on points with Atlanta on 35, but with three more games played, so it's a bit of a misleading number.

Columbus need every point. And without Federico Higuain, who's still out with a right knee sprain, Crew's attacking efforts hinge on the play of Justin Meram.

Meram is one of the best second tier attacking players in the league. He's a creative player who moves well without the ball and this season has broken through as a goal scorer. Through Saturday he's on 10 goals, which is a career high.

Nonetheless, Meram is decidedly a second tier attacking player. Too frequently he gets pushed deep to receive the ball, his passing accuracy leaves a bit to be desire; though he often takes risks to push the ball into the attack (which I generally view positively), and he goes too long without actually shooting the ball.

Here are his last four games--shots, goals, distribution and possession--dating back to July 22nd:

vs Chicago 

vs San Jose 

vs RSL

vs Phila

In the last two games Meram has been Crew's best player, and the best version of his current ability, the Opta data basically bears that out. The prior two games, though, Meram's data highlight the criticisms of his game.

For Columbus to stay above the redline, Meram is going to need to mirror his last two performances: taking the ball high up the pitch, releasing the ball early into an attacking position, and consistently putting up shots. 

If he can do that, I really like their chances to be a threatening squad. 

If not, Ola Karama running the backline isn't going to get it done.