Playoffs Preview

I've been away from this blog for the past five weeks or so adjusting to the rhythms a new job. In the past, I worked from home and set my own hours; and could write about soccer more. Now, I'm in the office with much more standard hours. Such is life.

Anyway, I've been watching games same as ever and what follows is a brief playoff preview -- this is less of a comprehensive run down of all the match-ups, and more of what I'm interested to see. 

Does momentum matter? This is the question going in to San Jose's game at Vancouver. The Whitecaps mid-season run of form compared to the Quakes mid-season missteps have setup a classic playoff phenomenon: an above average team coasting into elimination play versus a below average team who has played with desperation to make it into the tournament on the last day. On the surface, Vancouver is substantially better than San Jose; who have a -19 goal differential. That said, in their last three results San Jose have two wins and a draw whereas Vancouver have two losses and a draw. 

Can Atlanta find their form again? On Wednesday, September 13th ATL scored seven versus New England. It was emphatic. It also changed the narrative of their season. Instead of an over achieving expansion club content with huge crowds and positive results, expectations shifted towards MLS Cup. Since then,  injuries have cut into the hype. A win vs. Columbus, who haven't lost since August 5th at San Jose, won't come easy. To advance United are going to have to find that mid-September attacking genius. 

Is there one more great run left for SKC? This is surely the end of the line for one of the quintessential groups in league history. The Veremes, Besler, Zusi, Feilhaber, Espinoza core has been great. They've won all there is to win: U.S. Open Cup(s), Supporters Shield's, and MLS Cup; and in so doing created a unique and important soccer fanbase in the heart of the country. In many ways, this group represents MLS's growth into an established global league with real staying power. Can they find the magic one more time?   

San Jose Earthquakes - Vako

San Jose stole a point at the death against Philadelphia on Saturday night (8/19); a result that didn't serve either team well. And, for what it's worth, I'd suspect both teams to finish out of the playoff picture.

However, San Jose's newest Designated Player, Valeri "Vako" Qazaishvili, made his first start. He'd made a few late appearances with the Quakes in their previous two matches, and showed flashes of top-level MLS attacking play.

In his first full 90 he was the best player on the field by a wide margin; scoring three minutes in and creating several high quality scoring chances throughout. Check out the match highlights:

 

What's impressed me most in his brief MLS tenure so far is that Vako plays consistently at pace, going towards goal, and that he's quick to shoot. These things sound basic because they are. But so is attacking soccer. 

Even at the highest levels, creating scoring chances comes down to movement in the right direction and shooting the ball from high probability scoring areas. Whereas top-level defense is about restricting or containing player movement into hard to score from places, and tackling/blocking shots. 

Everything else in soccer, strategically and technically, permeates from those basic ideas.

In the Philadelphia draw, Vako shot the ball seven times, all from dangerous positions. That's excellent – it's exactly what you pay DP money for.

Vako shot chart vs Phila - 8/19/17

To give you some more context for this, Vako operates in the money zones of the field. There is a significant bank of research about how and where goals are scored. That research shows a majority of goals come from "zone 17" and are created from a "zone 14" pass. 

What does that mean? Check out this chart:

If you watch a lot of soccer none of this should surprise you. Most goals are scored in the penalty area and come from attacking passes directly in front of the penalty area. So, as a club, when you pay top dollar for a goal creator or goal scorer you intend for that player to operate in zones 14 and 17 a lot. 

Again, Vako did just that against the Union. Here's his total activity with the zonal lines superimposed.

Vako total activity with zones

Given that it's only one full match it's important to not over interpret the dataset (which is statistically insignificant), but the early signs point to Vako as a top-level goal scorer in MLS going forward.