Minnesota United - August 26th

There's been very little to write about Minnesota all season long. Unlike Atlanta, who've taken a savvy--and high dollar--approach to MLS expansion, the Loons haven taken what could most generously be called a "different" approach.

Minnesota made some good summer moves, and finally got a road win on Saturday (8/26) to show for it. It would be easy to interpret their 2-1 win over Chicago solely through the Fire's lens; which isn't pretty, but given this is likely to be the best result for Minnesota all season let's focus on it from their point of view.

First, Abu Danladi's pace was a real weapon (like usual) and he did well enough to finish two pretty easy chances (unlike usual) for a first half brace. Danladi has loads of potential as pure line-running goal scorer, but at this point in his development he lacks the first-touch to consistently put away the goal scoring opportunities his speed and positioning regularly creates. It should also be said: Danladi reads the game well; subjectively I'd rate his "soccer I.Q." as far above average, thanks in large part to coming through one of the best college soccer programs in the country –– UCLA. As his technical ability catches up to his natural ability, I suspect Danladi will become double-digit goal scorer.

Second,  the additions of Ethan Finlay, Sam Cronin, and Sam Nicholson have created a midfield that can at least compete against MLS-level opposition. That might sound like a low bar, but previously Minnesota were basically a non-MLS team in the midfield.  The Loons play five midfielders so I've isolated the completed passes for Finlay and Nicholson, while including Cronin and leaving out Ibson and Molino, comparing Saturday's win at Chicago vs. the 6/29 loss against NYCFC. Check it out:

Cronin, Finlay, Nicholson completed passes vs. CHI - 8/26

Cronin, Ibarra, Venegas completed passes vs NYCFC - 6/29

Notice the defensive-third passing cone I've created on each passing map –– in any game these are basically completed passes the opposition allows, i.e. not completed passes under pressure. (What about high pressing teams, you ask? A high press, done right, isolates and traps outside the inverted cone.) So, the passes I want to focus on are those that occur from midfield forward. These are completed passes under pressure that lead to goal scoring chances; Zones 11, 14, 17. In these zones, the Ibarra/Venegas combination generated basically zero attacking passes. And to be clear, it's not as if the new midfield combination is excelling, but it's much closer to competent; and when you add Ibson and Molino's data back you can see a decent midfield taking shape. 

Third, one of the primary challenges for Adrain Heath in the final stretch of the season will be managing the on-field dynamic between Danladi and a healthy Christian Ramirez (if he gets there). Ramirez has been, frankly, better than I anticipated this season (side note: I watched Ramirez play against my alma matter, Fresno Pacific University, while he was at Concordia. He was clearly a top-level NAIA player at that time [2012], but it wasn't obvious then that he'd be a double-digit goal scorer in MLS). That said, Danladi needs time on the field. It's that simple. However, he's played his only full 90 minute matches since Ramirez has gone down.

Abu Danladi Game Log 5/13-8/26

I'm certain Minnesota haven't seen enough yet to know of Danladi is "the guy" in their organization, but I'd think the final nine games would be a good to collect as much data as possible to test that thesis. 

San Jose Earthquakes - Vako

San Jose stole a point at the death against Philadelphia on Saturday night (8/19); a result that didn't serve either team well. And, for what it's worth, I'd suspect both teams to finish out of the playoff picture.

However, San Jose's newest Designated Player, Valeri "Vako" Qazaishvili, made his first start. He'd made a few late appearances with the Quakes in their previous two matches, and showed flashes of top-level MLS attacking play.

In his first full 90 he was the best player on the field by a wide margin; scoring three minutes in and creating several high quality scoring chances throughout. Check out the match highlights:

 

What's impressed me most in his brief MLS tenure so far is that Vako plays consistently at pace, going towards goal, and that he's quick to shoot. These things sound basic because they are. But so is attacking soccer. 

Even at the highest levels, creating scoring chances comes down to movement in the right direction and shooting the ball from high probability scoring areas. Whereas top-level defense is about restricting or containing player movement into hard to score from places, and tackling/blocking shots. 

Everything else in soccer, strategically and technically, permeates from those basic ideas.

In the Philadelphia draw, Vako shot the ball seven times, all from dangerous positions. That's excellent – it's exactly what you pay DP money for.

Vako shot chart vs Phila - 8/19/17

To give you some more context for this, Vako operates in the money zones of the field. There is a significant bank of research about how and where goals are scored. That research shows a majority of goals come from "zone 17" and are created from a "zone 14" pass. 

What does that mean? Check out this chart:

If you watch a lot of soccer none of this should surprise you. Most goals are scored in the penalty area and come from attacking passes directly in front of the penalty area. So, as a club, when you pay top dollar for a goal creator or goal scorer you intend for that player to operate in zones 14 and 17 a lot. 

Again, Vako did just that against the Union. Here's his total activity with the zonal lines superimposed.

Vako total activity with zones

Given that it's only one full match it's important to not over interpret the dataset (which is statistically insignificant), but the early signs point to Vako as a top-level goal scorer in MLS going forward. 

Montreal Impact - August 17

Montreal got a convincing 3-0 win at home against Chicago last night (8/17). The full three points draws them within two of Atlanta.

Watching the second half, I tweeted this:

Montreal as playoff contender is going to be a thing down the stretch. As is the Fire's slow collapse.#MTLvCHI #MLS

— Donald Norman (@dnld_nrmn) August 17, 2017

In the light of morning, I'm asking, "are Montreal real contenders?" The answer is not so clear. Some things to consider:

Ignacio Piatti (positive) - Piatti scored one of the best goals of the season last night; and he has the ability to go on a goal scoring binge all by himself. The skill to pick out the corner, on the run, with dip and bend is one of the hardest things for an attacking player to pull off. (Not to get too deep into the weeds here, but hitting the ball with top spin is the preferred way among goal scorers to score goals. It's instant credibility among their peers as a top-notch finisher.) Check it out. 

Piatti (negative) - For his world class skillset, Piatti continues, in my opinion, to be sporadically engaged in the Impact's build-up play. He ghosts for large portions of the game, seemingly disconnected from the idea of attacking soccer. Even with the brace last night, he only completed 10 passes. For comparison, here's David Villa's completed passes from the weekend on the left vs. Piatti on the right. 

 

Piatti completed passes vs. CHI (8/17)

David Villa vs LAG (8/13)

Team xGoals - The whip-smart guys at American Soccer Analysis track expected goals (xG) by player and team based on the quality and quantity of opportunities created. You can read their explainer. Here's the team chart:

The thing to notice is Montreal are currently outperforming their team xG by the largest margin in the league. That means they're scoring low probability goals relatively frequently. That's not a dependable path forward.

Plus, even by out preforming their xG, they're sitting on a negative goal differential (-2).  And while the addition of Piette in a defensive midfield role should help solidify their defensive shape and on-ball tackling through the middle––he's been good so far––they've got a fundamental goals allowed problem.

Chicago are actually in a similar position in terms of out preforming their xG, and it's pretty clear their coming back to earth (and dropping point in the process).

All of which is to say, I probably let Piatti's excellent goal get the best of me. I'd be surprised, but not shocked, if Montreal made the playoffs.

Columbus Crew - Justin Meram

Crew S.C. notched a critical 3-1 win over Chicago Fire on Saturday (8/13). The result puts in them in fifth place in the Eastern Conference –– tied on points with Atlanta on 35, but with three more games played, so it's a bit of a misleading number.

Columbus need every point. And without Federico Higuain, who's still out with a right knee sprain, Crew's attacking efforts hinge on the play of Justin Meram.

Meram is one of the best second tier attacking players in the league. He's a creative player who moves well without the ball and this season has broken through as a goal scorer. Through Saturday he's on 10 goals, which is a career high.

Nonetheless, Meram is decidedly a second tier attacking player. Too frequently he gets pushed deep to receive the ball, his passing accuracy leaves a bit to be desire; though he often takes risks to push the ball into the attack (which I generally view positively), and he goes too long without actually shooting the ball.

Here are his last four games--shots, goals, distribution and possession--dating back to July 22nd:

vs Chicago 

vs San Jose 

vs RSL

vs Phila

In the last two games Meram has been Crew's best player, and the best version of his current ability, the Opta data basically bears that out. The prior two games, though, Meram's data highlight the criticisms of his game.

For Columbus to stay above the redline, Meram is going to need to mirror his last two performances: taking the ball high up the pitch, releasing the ball early into an attacking position, and consistently putting up shots. 

If he can do that, I really like their chances to be a threatening squad. 

If not, Ola Karama running the backline isn't going to get it done.

Philadelphia Union - August 5

Last week the crew over at American Soccer Analysis posted this piece on Philadelphia's struggle to get C.J. Sapong the ball in a position to put shots on goal. It's worth reading.

Then on Saturday the Union scored the goal of the weekend, through excellent build up play.

Not only was this goal an excellent example of creative, accurate, passing in tight spaces it's also the type of goal that Philly needs to create to address their shooting/scoring issues.

Let's break it down:

The sequences starts with Ilsinho picking the ball up relatively deep and making a long, attacking, run with the ball on his feet (Not shown in the MLS highlight). This is something Union supporters having been wanting to see more of –– specifically Ilsinho dribbling at defenders to create space for diagonal off-ball runs. 

The ball cycles back to Haris Medunjanin, who's playing a defensive mid role in the Union's variation on the 4-3-3. Medunjanin takes the ball at Dallas' d-mid, Carlos Cermeño, who steps forward leaving Ilsinho free to create in the middle of the field, 20 yards from goal.

As the aforementioned piece makes clear, this scenario is too infrequent.

However, they've done the work here and Ilsinho delivers a world class one-touch flick back to Medunjanin––who continued his movement without the ball––inside the box. Sapong, meanwhile, had been running the Dallas backline and was waiting for service at the 6. The setup is simple and Sapong puts the cross in the back of the net.

However, Ilsinho is still too removed from the Union attack, even in this game, for what they need going forward (on the field and in general) if they're going to challenge for a playoff spot. Here are his passes and shots from Opta:

As you can see, positionally, he's easy to account for. Likewise, he's equally likely to pass the ball backwards to maintain possession as he is to advance the ball in the attack. Frankly, if this were Medunjanin's passing chart you'd be pretty comfortable with it. But from a player with relatively significant UEFA Champions League experience this level of on-ball passivity isn't what the Union are paying for. 

For comparison (and to continue the thread started by Kevin Shank), here is Diego Valeri's chart from Portland's 3-1 win over LA Galaxy on Sunday (8/6).

This is what playing a creative, offensive, midfield role should look like –– regardless of formation.
(1) Valeri is, positionally speaking, much harder to account for than Ilsinho (though he certainly has his preferences). (2) He's pressing the ball into an attacking position more often than not. And, (3) he's distributing the ball to both sides of the field.

Now, accounting for formation, system, and personnel differences it's not reasonable to expect Ilsinho to mirror Valeri (who's in my view the best offensive midfielder in MLS) but those basic themes should exist in Ilsinho's game.

All of which is to say Ilsinho is capable of more, and the flashes he showed against FCD prove it. But don't confuse those flashes with something bigger or more consistent. At least not yet.

Toronto F.C. - August 2

Through the All-Star game The Reds are clearly the class of MLS. They have the highest goal differential and points per game on the table.

When healthy and playing, they have the two best goal-getters in the league - Giovinco and Jozy. Michael Bradley is playing, perhaps, the best soccer of his career. And, their roster depth is on par with the other leading clubs. Players like Victor Vasquez, Raheem Edwards, Steven Beitashour and Benoit Cheyrou give Head Coach Greg Vanney roster flexibility and consistency.

These are the hallmarks of a championship calibre team, no question.

TFC's recent 4-0 route of NYCFC shows, in my opinion, just how far ahead of the Eastern Conference they are. That said, questions remain in my mind.

Primarily, I'm curious about TFC's ability to run ahead of the pack all season long.

Over the course of July's matches (2-0-2) they've played some brilliant soccer. But they've also played some very bland, uninspiring stretches only to be bailed out by outstanding individual performances – Saturday's (7/29) second goal comes to mind. Up 1-0, but basically playing NYFC neutrally, Giovinco scored an excellent set-piece goal from 23-25 yards out.

And it was Giovinco who took advantage of Pirlo's well documented defensive liabilities to put the Reds up 1-0 in the first place.

Make no mistake, an NYCFC squad basically forced to play Pirlo because of roster depth issues wasn't going to beat TFC in Toronto. On the other hand, the 4-0 result flattered what was honestly a pretty pedestrian effort.

I watched the game live, and took a few notes. The thing that stood out to me most was the 30+ minute stretch between Giovinco's goals. There was basically zero attacking soccer from TFC. In fact, they created only one shot on goal between the first and second goals; which was another Giovinco effort from distance.

To further underscore this point, I've isolated the completed passes time-stamapped between the first and second goals. I've also annotated the graphic to illustrated the field into 1/3rds, which is how most coaches understand possession: defensive-third, neutral-third, and attacking-third.

A couple of things to say here:

First, it's obvious NYCFC weren't threatening during this stretch either. So, TFC were certainly content to posses the ball in the middle-third of the field and control the tempo of the game. However, it's always important to remember time and score. This is the passing chart of a 1-0 game during the middle half-hour of the match. This is exactly when, as a coaching staff, you're pressing your squad to get that second goal. TFC players, however, weren't playing with any sense of urgency (and credit to them, the goals came later).

Second, David Villa was on the pitch for NYCFC until late in the match. In a 1-0 situation, Villa is exactly the type of player––in fact, there's probably no one in better in MLS––who can pull a goal back against the run of play. When coaches game plan opponents these are the scenarios they review with their players. If I were on Vanney's staff, I'd've likely shown each position group cut-ups of Villa creating something out of nothing just to remind them to stay vigilant no matter the time/score scenario.

It might seem like nitpicking, but these are the characteristics of team coasting into the All-Star weekend. Being six points clear of a Chicago team that's stalled out a bit may give Toronto the feeling of inevitability –– frankly, that's probably justified. But, championship level teams don't develop the habit of coasting. 

If this were a points race I don't think anyone would question Toronto's grip on the top of the table. But it isn't. And getting results without being pushed is often cause for concern in tournament play; which is what MLS playoffs are.

Portland Timbers - July 29

At their best Portland's midfield trio of Valeri, Nagbe, and Chara produce the highest level combination play in the league. Their opening goal on Saturday (7/29) is a perfect example of what they're capable of.

Check out the highlight video here.

Nagbe pushes the ball into space until he draws attention from Huston's Juan David Cabezas. Cabezas does enough to make Nagbe release the ball - out wide to Valentin, Portland's right back, who's pushing high as an attacking option.

The thing that makes Nagbe an elite player in MLS is how he uses his movement to create attacking options for his teammates. Nagbe continues his run into the channel behind Valentin – this where most players stand and watch after they move the ball off their foot. Because he's a threat to get the ball back, and attack on the dribble, Cabezas floats with Nagbe into the channel.

These small, seemingly insignificant, details at speed actually lead to major scoring chances.

Valeri makes an attacking run into the space Cabezas should be occupying were he not drifting with Nagbe.

Valentin sees the easy passing angle, plays a simple ball––on the ground––into Valeri's attacking run. Valeri punishes Leonardo, who's caught out diving to make an emergency tackle, and then nets a rocket-shot.

None of this happens without Nagbe's movement. And this the kind of stuff Nagbe does all the time. This is why top-notch coaches love him (Klinsmann jokes aside). And this is the kind of thing people mean when they refer to a player's soccer I.Q. or "feel for the game." These intuitive, subtle, movements transform an attack from easy to defend into complex, layered, works of footballing art – the beautiful game.