Playoffs Preview

I've been away from this blog for the past five weeks or so adjusting to the rhythms a new job. In the past, I worked from home and set my own hours; and could write about soccer more. Now, I'm in the office with much more standard hours. Such is life.

Anyway, I've been watching games same as ever and what follows is a brief playoff preview -- this is less of a comprehensive run down of all the match-ups, and more of what I'm interested to see. 

Does momentum matter? This is the question going in to San Jose's game at Vancouver. The Whitecaps mid-season run of form compared to the Quakes mid-season missteps have setup a classic playoff phenomenon: an above average team coasting into elimination play versus a below average team who has played with desperation to make it into the tournament on the last day. On the surface, Vancouver is substantially better than San Jose; who have a -19 goal differential. That said, in their last three results San Jose have two wins and a draw whereas Vancouver have two losses and a draw. 

Can Atlanta find their form again? On Wednesday, September 13th ATL scored seven versus New England. It was emphatic. It also changed the narrative of their season. Instead of an over achieving expansion club content with huge crowds and positive results, expectations shifted towards MLS Cup. Since then,  injuries have cut into the hype. A win vs. Columbus, who haven't lost since August 5th at San Jose, won't come easy. To advance United are going to have to find that mid-September attacking genius. 

Is there one more great run left for SKC? This is surely the end of the line for one of the quintessential groups in league history. The Veremes, Besler, Zusi, Feilhaber, Espinoza core has been great. They've won all there is to win: U.S. Open Cup(s), Supporters Shield's, and MLS Cup; and in so doing created a unique and important soccer fanbase in the heart of the country. In many ways, this group represents MLS's growth into an established global league with real staying power. Can they find the magic one more time?   

Minnesota United - August 26th

There's been very little to write about Minnesota all season long. Unlike Atlanta, who've taken a savvy--and high dollar--approach to MLS expansion, the Loons haven taken what could most generously be called a "different" approach.

Minnesota made some good summer moves, and finally got a road win on Saturday (8/26) to show for it. It would be easy to interpret their 2-1 win over Chicago solely through the Fire's lens; which isn't pretty, but given this is likely to be the best result for Minnesota all season let's focus on it from their point of view.

First, Abu Danladi's pace was a real weapon (like usual) and he did well enough to finish two pretty easy chances (unlike usual) for a first half brace. Danladi has loads of potential as pure line-running goal scorer, but at this point in his development he lacks the first-touch to consistently put away the goal scoring opportunities his speed and positioning regularly creates. It should also be said: Danladi reads the game well; subjectively I'd rate his "soccer I.Q." as far above average, thanks in large part to coming through one of the best college soccer programs in the country –– UCLA. As his technical ability catches up to his natural ability, I suspect Danladi will become double-digit goal scorer.

Second,  the additions of Ethan Finlay, Sam Cronin, and Sam Nicholson have created a midfield that can at least compete against MLS-level opposition. That might sound like a low bar, but previously Minnesota were basically a non-MLS team in the midfield.  The Loons play five midfielders so I've isolated the completed passes for Finlay and Nicholson, while including Cronin and leaving out Ibson and Molino, comparing Saturday's win at Chicago vs. the 6/29 loss against NYCFC. Check it out:

Cronin, Finlay, Nicholson completed passes vs. CHI - 8/26

Cronin, Ibarra, Venegas completed passes vs NYCFC - 6/29

Notice the defensive-third passing cone I've created on each passing map –– in any game these are basically completed passes the opposition allows, i.e. not completed passes under pressure. (What about high pressing teams, you ask? A high press, done right, isolates and traps outside the inverted cone.) So, the passes I want to focus on are those that occur from midfield forward. These are completed passes under pressure that lead to goal scoring chances; Zones 11, 14, 17. In these zones, the Ibarra/Venegas combination generated basically zero attacking passes. And to be clear, it's not as if the new midfield combination is excelling, but it's much closer to competent; and when you add Ibson and Molino's data back you can see a decent midfield taking shape. 

Third, one of the primary challenges for Adrain Heath in the final stretch of the season will be managing the on-field dynamic between Danladi and a healthy Christian Ramirez (if he gets there). Ramirez has been, frankly, better than I anticipated this season (side note: I watched Ramirez play against my alma matter, Fresno Pacific University, while he was at Concordia. He was clearly a top-level NAIA player at that time [2012], but it wasn't obvious then that he'd be a double-digit goal scorer in MLS). That said, Danladi needs time on the field. It's that simple. However, he's played his only full 90 minute matches since Ramirez has gone down.

Abu Danladi Game Log 5/13-8/26

I'm certain Minnesota haven't seen enough yet to know of Danladi is "the guy" in their organization, but I'd think the final nine games would be a good to collect as much data as possible to test that thesis. 

San Jose Earthquakes - Vako

San Jose stole a point at the death against Philadelphia on Saturday night (8/19); a result that didn't serve either team well. And, for what it's worth, I'd suspect both teams to finish out of the playoff picture.

However, San Jose's newest Designated Player, Valeri "Vako" Qazaishvili, made his first start. He'd made a few late appearances with the Quakes in their previous two matches, and showed flashes of top-level MLS attacking play.

In his first full 90 he was the best player on the field by a wide margin; scoring three minutes in and creating several high quality scoring chances throughout. Check out the match highlights:

 

What's impressed me most in his brief MLS tenure so far is that Vako plays consistently at pace, going towards goal, and that he's quick to shoot. These things sound basic because they are. But so is attacking soccer. 

Even at the highest levels, creating scoring chances comes down to movement in the right direction and shooting the ball from high probability scoring areas. Whereas top-level defense is about restricting or containing player movement into hard to score from places, and tackling/blocking shots. 

Everything else in soccer, strategically and technically, permeates from those basic ideas.

In the Philadelphia draw, Vako shot the ball seven times, all from dangerous positions. That's excellent – it's exactly what you pay DP money for.

Vako shot chart vs Phila - 8/19/17

To give you some more context for this, Vako operates in the money zones of the field. There is a significant bank of research about how and where goals are scored. That research shows a majority of goals come from "zone 17" and are created from a "zone 14" pass. 

What does that mean? Check out this chart:

If you watch a lot of soccer none of this should surprise you. Most goals are scored in the penalty area and come from attacking passes directly in front of the penalty area. So, as a club, when you pay top dollar for a goal creator or goal scorer you intend for that player to operate in zones 14 and 17 a lot. 

Again, Vako did just that against the Union. Here's his total activity with the zonal lines superimposed.

Vako total activity with zones

Given that it's only one full match it's important to not over interpret the dataset (which is statistically insignificant), but the early signs point to Vako as a top-level goal scorer in MLS going forward.